If you’re a woman and if your head is spinning following passage of the draconian abortion law in Alabama, rest assured that the dizzy disorientation you’re feeling is shared by women across the country. If you’re like me, you might find yourself waking up in a cold sweat in the middle of the night with the terrifying sense that your worst nightmare has just crossed the threshold from dream to reality. If you’re like me, you might find that words fail to describe your sense of anger and despair.

Welcome, ladies, to the new reality of the all-out, unashamed assault on our bodies and our lives. This is the battle we hoped we’d never have to face. This is the battle that we should have known was baked into the Supreme Court’s decision in Roe v. Wade. This is the battle that we and our daughters will have to fight because every obstacle that every woman ever has overcome and every opportunity seized were born out of our ability to make our own choices about our reproductive lives. Make no mistake about this: Every aspect of women’s lives is now under threat.

And where, exactly, do our fellow citizens stand on women’s right to decide how, when, and with whom we choose to bear our children? According to the Pew Research Center, 58% of Americans say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 37% think abortion should be illegal in all or most cases.

When you break down those numbers into attitudes among Republicans and Democrats, the deep divide over abortion becomes even more stark. Here’s what the pollsters at Pew found:

“By a wide margin (59% to 36%), Republicans say abortion should be illegal in all or most cases. In 1995, Republicans were evenly divided (49% legal vs. 48% illegal).

Views among Democrats have shifted in the other direction over the past two decades. Today, 76% of Democrats say abortion should be legal in at least most cases. In 1995, 64% favored legal abortion in all or most cases.”

Should we, as pro-choice women, take any solace at all from the fact that our views are shared by a majority of Americans? Sadly, the answer is no. We’re living through a time in which nothing in our civic and political life can be taken for granted. If nothing else, Donald Trump and his Republican enablers have demonstrated to us in no uncertain terms that majority opinion does not necessarily prevail. In fact, with every news cycle we are bombarded with the upside-down reality that the beliefs and opinions of the majority can easily be overwhelmed and squashed by the cunning, the dishonesty, and the manipulation of the minority.

Words may have failed me upon hearing the disturbing news out of Alabama. But words haven’t failed three clever comedy writers, Amber Ruffin, Jenny Hagel, and Ally Hord. They’ve found just the right words. Listen, laugh, and cry. And then shake off the nightmare and get ready to fight.

The post Alabama’s anti-abortion abomination appeared first on Occasional Planet.

On Tuesday, the people of Alabama will go to the polls and choose a replacement for the senate seat left vacant by beleaguered attorney general Jeff Sessions. For many Alabama voters, choosing a candidate will be a legitimately difficult decision. Thinking as a liberal, it easy for me to say, “Doug Jones is the most qualified, and there’s no competition”. But living in a rural area and talking to my conservative friends, I’m beginning to understand how they could vote for a man like Roy Moore. If you’re a Republican, and you believe that life begins at conception, then how could you possibly vote for a person who supports policies that you believe are tantamount to killing a child? If you believe that the Supreme Court needs conservative justices like Neil Gorsuch or Clarence Thomas, then how could you support a person who would oppose a Trump nominee? If you are a conservative, if you support President Trump, then how can you support a person who will oppose Trump’s agenda?

However, if the person on your side of the issues is an accused child molester, it’s easy to see why the polls are close.

I don’t have to rehash the things Roy Moore has said or the things he believes. Although, suggesting 9/11 was God’s divine punishment for America accepting homosexuality, saying that America was at it’s peak when there were slaves, or his seeming inability to respect the separation of church and state are worth mentioning.

There’s an ugly stigma about Alabama because of its checkered history, there’s an assumption that Alabama is backwards and bigoted. I’ve been to Alabama, and while most voters are unabashedly conservative, they’re still decent people who are aware of how outsiders view their state. A lot of people recoil when they hear “Alabama” and the people in that state have been trying to move past George Wallace and Jim Crow for a generation.

Roy Moore pulls Alabama backwards, and it may not matter how much voters agree with Moore on policy.

The truth is, and everyone has been acknowledging this, but we don’t really know what turnout is going to look like. However, the models that polls have put out that show Moore leading have two things in common, women don’t make up greater than 52% of respondents and blacks don’t make up greater than 25%.

On average, Alabama women make up 53% of the electorate. But it stands to reason that Roy Moore might energize women voters, and they could conceivably turnout so high that they could comprise 55% of the electorate. We know this could happen because it has happened, in Missouri way back in 2012 when Claire McCaskill trounced Todd “legitimate rape” Akin. There’s data already that suggests that Jones holds a sizable lead among women, so higher woman can only benefit Jones.

The real uncertainty comes from how many black voters will turn out for Jones. We know it won’t be the level Barack Obama received (Blacks made up over 35% of the electorate). However, it’s unlikely that black turnout will fall as low as the polls are predicting. Granted this is an off year special election which historically means black turnout shouldn’t be especially high. However, this race has received national attention and voters have been saturated by ads as well as robocalls from two former Presidents. Blacks might not show up with Presidential level turnout, but pollsters shouldn’t underestimate the power of community organizers in communities of color. That’s not to mention the mobilizing factor that is Roy Moore.

Ultimately though, I’m not a statistician or a pollster. When people start handicapping polls because of this factor or that factor, it means they’re losing. The Romney people did it in 2012 and the Bernie people did it in 2016. However, this race is legitimately close unlike the others.

Just finally, Alabama isn’t as red as we’d like to think. In 2010 during the Republican wave, a democrat received 48% of the vote in his race for lieutenant governor. Roy Moore only was just barely elected to the Supreme Court in 2012. Alabama voters are willing to split their ballots, and a Doug Jones victory should surprise no one.

The post Don’t be Surprised if Doug Jones wins in Alabama appeared first on Occasional Planet.