Remember when Michelle Obama said in 2007, “For the first time in my adult life, I am really proud of my country because it feels like hope is finally making a comeback.” She took some flak for it, like Cindy McCain saying, “I have and always will be proud of my country.” But Cindy McCain may not be that familiar with the African-American experience. Michelle Obama was expressing a feeling that comes at one of the points where the “long arc of history may be bending towards justice.” Give her a break. After all, that didn’t last too long.

I heard something at Doug Jones’ victory party in Alabama last night that gave me pride. It may be the first and possibly the last time. The crowd started chanting, “U.S.A., U.S.A., U.S.A.” I normally find that chant to be boorish, snobbish and inappropriate. It is like the bully prancing around the playground telling everyone that he or she is the greatest. There is no modesty involved. I must wonder what athletes from other countries think about the chant when they hear it at the Olympics, or elsewhere. It’s so, “In your face.” Even if the venue is not the Olympics and it’s a rally in the U.S., it almost reflects the pleading of a child who can’t find other sources of self-esteem.

But hearing it from an Alabama crowd was different. In recent decades, we’ve come to learn that the Civil War is not over, or if it is over, it seems that the Confederacy won. So, instead of singing the Alabama fight song and waving Confederate flags, we heard Jones supporters saying something that might reflect a profound change in loyalties. They were proud to be citizens of the United States, not just Alabama. That’s one of the beauties about races for federal office; they give the winners opportunities to do something that can truly advance the quality of life in our country as a whole. It’s not parochial about their state. That perspective often leads to a “race to the bottom.”

Doug Jones wants to restore fund for CHIP (Children’s Health Insurance Program). That’s a true dollar and cents issue, and one that impacts all needy children in America. His words are steps towards improving quality of life, and clearly demonstrating that Democrats are more interested in the economic needs of people in lower-income brackets. The Republicans have tried to snooker people into thinking that is their concern, but look at their tax plans and you see who they clearly favor.

Another great point from last night was when Charles Barkley was first dropped the cliché, “the great people of Alabama,” and then corrected himself. He said that he wanted others to know that there are some great people in Alabama, but there are also rednecks and knuckleheads. Kudos to Barkley. Instead of the lame connotations of any state being great, he acknowledged that it is a fabric of mixed characteristics. It is a work in progress and blindly praising the state can offer excuses to not deal with real problems. Barkley has previously hinted at running for office in Alabama; he seems to have at least one foot in the sea of reality.

Finally, there is Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill. Here is a man who voted for Roy Moore, because he felt that it would be better for the U.S. Supreme Court and other issues. But when the votes were counted, he sounded as respectable as any Secretary of State could. He made it clear that Jones’ 1.5% margin was three times larger than the 0.5% difference to trigger an automatic vote recount. He said that the people of Alabama had spoken. He clearly outlined how certification of the election would proceed.

He seemed to take his office seriously. Even when Chris Cuomo needled him this morning about his vote for Moore, he maintained his integrity. It’s all something to think about. Life may not be as simple as we often characterize it.

So, congratulations to Doug Moore and those in Alabama who want the state to be a full participant in helping the United States address its economic and social issues. But with the shift of eleven thousand votes, it would be Donald Trump, Steve Bannon and Roy Moore who would be crowing. It’s a ‘W’ for the Democrats, but tenuous at that. If Alabama is in play, it’s like the rest of the country. Democrats clearly have the high ground when it comes to policies, but they still have a lot of ‘splaining to do. Victory can be fleeting.

The post Beyond the hype, some nuggets from the Alabama Senate Race appeared first on Occasional Planet.

On Tuesday, the people of Alabama will go to the polls and choose a replacement for the senate seat left vacant by beleaguered attorney general Jeff Sessions. For many Alabama voters, choosing a candidate will be a legitimately difficult decision. Thinking as a liberal, it easy for me to say, “Doug Jones is the most qualified, and there’s no competition”. But living in a rural area and talking to my conservative friends, I’m beginning to understand how they could vote for a man like Roy Moore. If you’re a Republican, and you believe that life begins at conception, then how could you possibly vote for a person who supports policies that you believe are tantamount to killing a child? If you believe that the Supreme Court needs conservative justices like Neil Gorsuch or Clarence Thomas, then how could you support a person who would oppose a Trump nominee? If you are a conservative, if you support President Trump, then how can you support a person who will oppose Trump’s agenda?

However, if the person on your side of the issues is an accused child molester, it’s easy to see why the polls are close.

I don’t have to rehash the things Roy Moore has said or the things he believes. Although, suggesting 9/11 was God’s divine punishment for America accepting homosexuality, saying that America was at it’s peak when there were slaves, or his seeming inability to respect the separation of church and state are worth mentioning.

There’s an ugly stigma about Alabama because of its checkered history, there’s an assumption that Alabama is backwards and bigoted. I’ve been to Alabama, and while most voters are unabashedly conservative, they’re still decent people who are aware of how outsiders view their state. A lot of people recoil when they hear “Alabama” and the people in that state have been trying to move past George Wallace and Jim Crow for a generation.

Roy Moore pulls Alabama backwards, and it may not matter how much voters agree with Moore on policy.

The truth is, and everyone has been acknowledging this, but we don’t really know what turnout is going to look like. However, the models that polls have put out that show Moore leading have two things in common, women don’t make up greater than 52% of respondents and blacks don’t make up greater than 25%.

On average, Alabama women make up 53% of the electorate. But it stands to reason that Roy Moore might energize women voters, and they could conceivably turnout so high that they could comprise 55% of the electorate. We know this could happen because it has happened, in Missouri way back in 2012 when Claire McCaskill trounced Todd “legitimate rape” Akin. There’s data already that suggests that Jones holds a sizable lead among women, so higher woman can only benefit Jones.

The real uncertainty comes from how many black voters will turn out for Jones. We know it won’t be the level Barack Obama received (Blacks made up over 35% of the electorate). However, it’s unlikely that black turnout will fall as low as the polls are predicting. Granted this is an off year special election which historically means black turnout shouldn’t be especially high. However, this race has received national attention and voters have been saturated by ads as well as robocalls from two former Presidents. Blacks might not show up with Presidential level turnout, but pollsters shouldn’t underestimate the power of community organizers in communities of color. That’s not to mention the mobilizing factor that is Roy Moore.

Ultimately though, I’m not a statistician or a pollster. When people start handicapping polls because of this factor or that factor, it means they’re losing. The Romney people did it in 2012 and the Bernie people did it in 2016. However, this race is legitimately close unlike the others.

Just finally, Alabama isn’t as red as we’d like to think. In 2010 during the Republican wave, a democrat received 48% of the vote in his race for lieutenant governor. Roy Moore only was just barely elected to the Supreme Court in 2012. Alabama voters are willing to split their ballots, and a Doug Jones victory should surprise no one.

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