Back in the \u201cancient times\u201d of January and early March, 2012, Mitt Romney was unable to carry\u00a0 early Southern states such as South Carolina and Georgia. A line of conventional thinking developed in Republican ranks that it would be bad for the party if it did not have a candidate who would be strong in the South, the party\u2019s most loyal and reliable region.<\/p>\n

The arguments used by those who saw the obvious disconnect between Romney and Dixie were strengthened on Tuesday, March 13, when Romney came in third\u00a0 in both Alabama and Mississippi. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich both had more solid following in the south.<\/p>\n

If Romney has the strength outside the South to win a considerable number of states, and that is only possible if the economy sputters, then his ability to carry the South would likely provide him with the necessary margin to win the Electoral College.<\/p>\n

With our Electoral College system structured so that the winner of each state commands all the electoral votes from that state,\u00a0 theoretically Romney only needs to be strong enough in the South to defeat President Barack Obama by one vote in each of the states south of the Mason-Dixon Line. This renders moot the question of whether Santorum or Gingrich would be stronger in the South. The margin of victory in each state doesn\u2019t matter.. Despite not winning a single Southern state other than Florida against his Republican competitors, Romney seems capable of carrying the South.<\/p>\n

As the primaries have demonstrated, a strong November showing by Romney in Dixie would not necessarily mean that he would be popular in those states. It would only mean that he would curry the favor of more voters than President Obama. The chances of Barack Obama carrying the South are minimal for a variety of reasons.<\/p>\n

To recognize the challenges that President Obama would face in most Southern states, consider how he fared in 2008 against his Republican opponent, Senator John McCain.
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State (% African-American)<\/a><\/th>	Obama<\/th>	McCain<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Texas (12%)<\/td>	44%<\/td>	55%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Louisiana (32%)<\/td>	40%<\/td>	59%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mississippi (37%)<\/td>	43%<\/td>	56%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Alabama (26%)<\/td>	39%<\/td>	61%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Georgia (31%)<\/td>	47%<\/td>	52%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Florida (16%)<\/td>	51%<\/td>	48%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
South Carolina (28%)<\/td>	45%<\/td>	54%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
North Carolina (22%)<\/td>	50%<\/td>	49%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Virginia (19%)<\/td>	53%<\/td>	47%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Tennessee (17%)<\/td>	41%<\/td>	58%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kentucky (8%)<\/td>	42%<\/td>	57%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Arkansas (15%)<\/td>	39%<\/td>	59%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/p>\n Nationwide, 12.6% of the population is African-American<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/a>