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{"id":39854,"date":"2019-02-17T13:13:30","date_gmt":"2019-02-17T19:13:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/occasionalplanet.org\/?p=39854"},"modified":"2019-02-17T13:13:30","modified_gmt":"2019-02-17T19:13:30","slug":"ballot-initiatives-downside-of-uptick-in-voter-turnout","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/occasionalplanet.org\/2019\/02\/17\/ballot-initiatives-downside-of-uptick-in-voter-turnout\/","title":{"rendered":"Ballot initiatives: Downside of uptick in voter turnout"},"content":{"rendered":"

If you are frustrated with gridlock and\/or intransigence in your state legislature, as many voters are, one way to get your issue considered is to gather signatures and take your proposal directly to voters with a ballot initiative. But that grassroots process\u2014which has proliferated in recent years, as you may have noticed by measuring the length of your November 2018 ballot\u2014is becoming much more difficult in many states.<\/p>\n

Currently, 24 states\u2014mostly in the Western half of the country\u2014enable citizens to bypass the legislature with ballot initiatives. Here\u2019s a list of who allows what.<\/a><\/p>\n

Requirements vary. In general, if you want the next statewide ballot to include, for example, an anti-gerrymandering proposal, or an increase in the tax on gasoline, or an amendment to your state\u2019s constitution, you must get a minimum number of registered voters to sign petitions.<\/p>\n

In most states where this direct-democracy process is available, the number of signatures required<\/a> to qualify for inclusion on the ballot is pegged to the number of voters who voted in the most recent governor\u2019s race.<\/p>\n

And that\u2019s the problem. Voter turnout is the key. Low turnout in a governor\u2019s election makes it easier to get petition signatures in later elections. While high turnout\u2014ironically, something that we normally view as a fundamental [small-d] democratic value\u2014works against grassroots signature-gathering efforts.<\/p>\n

Case in point: California<\/h2>\n

California offers an instructive example. To get an issue on the ballot in California<\/a>, you must gather signatures equal to or greater than 8 percent of the number of ballots cast in the preceding gubernatorial election. In the 2014 election, only 30 percent of voters cast ballots. That meant that, in the next two election cycles (when there was no governor\u2019s race scheduled), supporters of any ballot measure needed just 365,880 valid signatures. \u201cThe bar was so low,\u201d reports The Hill<\/a>, \u201cthat California\u2019s ballots were inundated by initiatives: 15 citizen-sponsored ballot measures in 2016 and 8 more in 2018.\u201d<\/p>\n

But voters came out in much higher numbers in the 2018 election. \u201cThe result is that in 2020 and 2022, using the same 8 percent threshold, initiative supporters will need to collect more than 623,000 valid signatures, a 70 percent increase,\u201d according to the Hill\u2019s reporting.<\/p>\n

Same story, different state<\/h2>\n

A similar scenario is playing out in other initiative-petition states. Here are some examples:<\/p>\n

ARIZONA<\/p>\n